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Impacts of Drought
(Updated September 30, 1998)

Drought produces a complex web of impacts that spans many sectors of the economy and reaches well beyond the area experiencing physical drought. This complexity exists because water is integral to our ability to produce goods and provide services.

Impacts are commonly referred to as direct or indirect. Reduced crop, rangeland, and forest productivity;increased fire hazard; reduced water levels; increased livestock and wildlife mortality rates; and damage to wildlife and fish habitat are a few examples of direct impacts. The consequences of these impacts illustrate indirect impacts. For example, a reduction in crop, rangeland, and forest productivity may result in reduced income for farmers and agribusiness, increased prices for food and timber, unemployment, reduced tax revenues because of reduced expenditures, increased crime, foreclosures on bank loans to farmers and businesses, migration, and disaster relief programs. Direct or primary impacts are usually biophysical. Conceptually speaking, the more removed the impact from the cause, the more complex the link to the cause. In fact, the web of impacts becomes so diffuse that it's very difficult to come up with financial estimates of damages.

The impacts of drought can be listed as economic, environmental, or social.

Not all impacts of drought are negative. Some agricultural producers outside the drought area or with surpluses benefit from higher prices, as do businesses that provide water-related services or alternatives to water-dependent services. Researchers William E. Riebsame, Stanley A. Changnon Jr. and Thomas R. Karl came up
with a list of winners in the 1987-89 U.S. drought.

Many economic impacts occur in agriculture and related sectors, including forestry and fisheries, because of the reliance of these sectors on surface and subsurface water supplies. In addition to obvious losses in yields in both crop and livestock production, drought is associated with increases in insect infestations, plant disease, and wind erosion. Droughts also bring increased problems with insects and diseases to forests and reduce growth. The incidence of forest and range fires increases substantially during extended droughts, which in turn places both human and wildlife populations at higher levels of risk.

Income loss is another indicator used in assessing the impacts of drought because so many sectors are affected. Reduced income for farmers has a ripple effect. Retailers and others who provide goods and services to farmers face reduced business. This leads to unemployment, increased credit risk for financial institutions, capital shortfalls, and loss of tax revenue for local, state, and federal government. Less discretionary income affects the
recreation and tourism industries. Prices for food, energy, and other products increase as supplies are reduced. In some cases, local shortages of certain goods results in importing these goods from outside the stricken region. Reduced water supply impairs the navigability of rivers and results in increased transportation costs because products must be transported by rail or truck. Hydropower production may also be significantly curtailed.

Environmental losses are the result of damages to plant and animal species, wildlife habitat, and air and water quality; forest and range fires; degradation of landscape quality; loss of biodiversity; and soil erosion. Some of the effects are short-term and conditions quickly return to normal following the end of the drought. Other environmental effects linger for some time or may even become permanent. Wildlife habitat, for example, may be degraded through the loss of wetlands, lakes, and vegetation. However, many species will eventually recover from this temporary aberration. The degradation of landscape quality, including increased soil erosion, may lead to a more permanent loss of biological productivity of the landscape. Although environmental losses are difficult to quantify, growing public awareness and concern for environmental quality has forced public officials to focus greater attention and resources on these effects.

Social impacts mainly involve public safety, health, conflicts between water users, reduced quality of life, and inequities in the distribution of impacts and disaster relief. Many of the impacts specified as economic and environmental have social components as well. Population out-migration is a significant problem in many countries, often stimulated by greater availability of food and water elsewhere. Migration is usually to urban areas within
the stressed area or to regions outside the drought area; migration may even be to adjacent countries, creating refugee problems. However, when the drought has abated, these persons seldom return home, depriving rural areas of valuable human resources necessary for economic development. For the urban area to which they have immigrated, they place ever-increasing pressure on the social infrastructure, possibly leading to greater poverty and social unrest. The drought-prone northeast region of Brazil had a net loss of nearly 5.5 million people between
1950 and 1980. Although not all of this population shift was directly attributable to drought, it was a primary factor for many in the decision to relocate. This continues to be a significant problem in Brazil and many other drought-prone countries.

Drought represents one of the most important natural triggers for malnutrition and famine, a significant and widespread problem in many parts of Africa and in other countries as well. Deaths resulting from famine are sometimes mistakenly attributed to drought rather than to underlying causes such as war or civil strife. Numerous early warning systems have been established in Africa to monitor a wide range of physical and social variables that
signal a trend toward food insecurity. The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), for example, monitors the crop and food situation in the region and issues alerts during periods of impending crisis.

----Economic

-Costs and losses to agricultural producers

Annual and perennial crop losses
Damage to crop quality
Income loss for farmers due to reduced crop yields
Reduced productivity of cropland (wind erosion, long-term loss of organic matter, etc.)
Insect infestation
Plant disease
Wildlife damage to crops
Increased irrigation costs
Cost of new or supplemental water resource development (wells,
dams, pipelines)

-Costs and losses to livestock producers
Reduced productivity of rangeland
Reduced milk production
Forced reduction of foundation stock
Closure/limitation of public lands to grazing
High cost/unavailability of water for livestock
Cost of new or supplemental water resource development (wells, dams, pipelines)
High cost/unavailability of feed for livestock
Increased feed transportation costs
High livestock mortality rates
Disruption of reproduction cycles (delayed breeding, more miscarriages)
Decreased stock weights
Increased predation
Range fires

-Loss from timber production
Wildland fires
Tree disease
Insect infestation
Impaired productivity of forest land
Direct loss of trees, especially young ones

-Loss from fishery production
Damage to fish habitat
Loss of fish and other aquatic organisms due to decreased flows

- General economic effects
Decreased land prices
Loss to industries directly dependent on agricultural production (e.g., machinery and fertilizer manufacturers, food
processors, dairies, etc.)
Unemployment from drought-related declines in production
Strain on financial institutions (foreclosures, more credit risk, capital shortfalls)
Revenue losses to federal, state, and local governments (from reduced tax base)
Reduction of economic development
Fewer agricultural producers (due to bankruptcies, new occupations)
Rural population loss

-Loss to recreation and tourism industry
Loss to manufacturers and sellers of recreational equipment
Losses related to curtailed activities: hunting and fishing, bird watching, boating, etc.

-Energy-related effects
Increased energy demand and reduced supply because of drought-related power curtailments
Costs to energy industry and consumers associated with substituting more expensive fuels (oil) for hydroelectric
power

- Water Suppliers
Revenue shortfalls and/or windfall profits
Cost of water transport or transfer
Cost of new or supplemental water resource development

- Transportation Industry
Loss from impaired navigability of streams, rivers and canals

- Decline in food production/disrupted food supply
Increase in food prices
Increased importation of food (higher costs)

----Environmental

-Damage to animal species
Reduction and degradation of fish and wildlife habitat
Lack of feed and drinking water
Greater mortality due to increased contact with agricultural producers, as animals seek food from farms and
producers are less tolerant
Disease
Increased vulnerability to predation (from species concentrated near water)
Migration and concentration (loss of wildlife in some areas and too many in others)
Increased stress to endangered species
Loss of biodiversity
Hydrological effects
Lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and ponds
Reduced flow from springs
Reduced streamflow
Loss of wetlands
Estuarine impacts (e.g., changes in salinity levels)
Increased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced recharge
Water quality effects (e.g., salt concentration, increased water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity)

-Damage to plant communities
Loss of biodiversity
Loss of trees from urban landscapes, shelterbelts, wooded conservation areas

-Increased number and severity of fires

-Wind and water erosion of soils, reduced soil quality

-Air quality effects (e.g., dust, pollutants)

-Visual and landscape quality (e.g., dust, vegetative cover, etc.)

----Social

-Health
Mental and physical stress (e.g., anxiety, depression, loss of security, domestic violence)
Health-related low-flow problems (e.g., cross-connection contamination, diminished sewage flows, increased
pollutant concentrations, reduced fire fighting capability, etc.)
Reductions in nutrition (e.g., high-cost food limitations, stress-related dietary deficiencies)
Loss of human life (e.g., from heat stress, suicides)
Public safety from forest and range fires
Increased respiratory ailments
Increased disease caused by wildlife concentrations

-Increased conflicts
Water user conflicts
Political conflicts
Management conflicts
Other social conflicts (e.g., scientific, media-based)

-Reduced quality of life, changes in lifestyle
in rural areas
in specific urban areas
increased poverty in general
population migrations (rural to urban areas, migrants into the U.S.)
loss of aesthetic values reduction or modification of recreational activities

-Disruption of cultural belief systems (e.g., religious and scientific views of natural hazards)

-Reevaluation of social values (e.g., priorities, needs, rights)

-Public dissatisfaction with government drought response

-Perceptions of inequity in relief, possibly related to socioeconomic status, ethnicity, age, gender, seniority

-Loss of cultural sites

-Increased data/information needs, coordination of dissemination activities

-Recognition of institutional restraints on water use.

http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/impacts/impacts.htm